The Hang Seng Index closed nearly unchanged at 20,096 on Friday, pausing for breath after two sessions of gains. This stability was driven by a mix of increases in technology, property, and consumer sectors, which managed to offset losses faced by financial stocks. Market players were incited by rorts from the World Bank, which lifted its economic growth forecast for China to 4.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025. However, it flagged several hurdles for the economy, including subdued demand, a weak consumer sentiment, and elevated local government debt.
Adding to the narrative, new data for China's industrial profits showed a notable decline of 4.7% year-on-year for the first eleven months of this year, slightly worse than a 4.3% drop recorded during the preceding period, suggesting ongoing challenges across both public and private sectors. Meanwhile, revisions of the 2023 GDP up to CNY 129.4 trillion came without detailed explanation from governmental sources.
In the United States, the mood was subdued on Wall Street ahead of the holiday, yet the index saw a weekly rise of 1.9%, fueled by optimism surrounding potential fiscal spending in China for 2025. Key players in the Hong Kong market like Lenovo Group and Li Auto experienced significant stock increases of 9.2% and 6.0% respectively, while firms such as Nongfu Spring and Haidilao International faced declines of 4.0% and 3.4%.
Looking ahead, the main stock index of Hong Kong (HK50) has seen a remarkable increase of 3043 points or 17.85% since the start of 2024. Analysts project that the Hong Kong Stock Market Index will stabilize around 19,344.12 points by the end of the current quarter, with an estimated future trading range settling at 18,633.11 points within the next twelve months.